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  • In the 538 Election Forecast, what is the difference between States . . .
    Campaign stops, and advertisements in local markets use limited resources In 2020, Ohio is currently polling at 50-49, Trump, so it's close But Biden probably should not invest too much time money in Ohio, as he can comfortably win with states that are to it's left 538 currently lists Ohio as the tipping point in 2 8% of simulations But
  • Correlation between 538s urbanization index and vote margin 2020?
    538 did an article about the urban-rural divide It said that in 2016, the correlation between urbanization and Dem voting was 0 69 in 2016 and 0 55 in 2012 (There was one big exception: Vermont ) What was the correlation between the preliminary results and the urbanization index in the 2020 presidential election?
  • united states - Why do election predictions by FiveThirtyEight and . . .
    538 pays a lot of attention to the quality, decay, and noise from polling data Silver uses Pollster rankings, trend line adjustments, and poll sample adjustments to enhance the performance of a run-of-the-mill polling average
  • united states - Could Democrats take back the House of Representatives . . .
    In 'Dems can take the House back in 60 days' a YouTube podcaster argues that via the three upcoming special elections (1 in New York and 2 in Florida) Democrats could take the House back by winning
  • united states - Why were there only 531 electoral votes in the US . . .
    I just read this Wikipedia article It says Trump won with a 304 to 227 for electoral votes That's 304 + 227 = 531 votes But the total number should be 538 Where did the 7 votes go?
  • Why was the Economist model so sure Trump was going to lose compared to . . .
    538 uses a t-distribution to account for "black swan" events: things that, although they are unlikely, would have a big impact on the polls This means that 538 assigns a small probability to some very unlikely outcomes (Trump wins California, or Biden wins Utah) The Economist model doesn't
  • Why do betting markets disagree with polling - US Election 2024
    OK, but you have systems like The Economist and 538 that have 53% Trump 47% Harris odds as of last week Those are not polls, they are statistical analyses built on top of polls The Electoral College is a known mechanism to them, so is the extra margin needed for the Dems to win
  • What determines the number of electors in each state of the US
    435 Representatives + 100 Senators + 3 DC Electors = 538 Electoral Votes Though this is slightly outside the scope of your question, this is part of the reason the census has recently been politicized : an undercount in (often specific) urban areas would lead to lesser representation in traditionally blue areas, giving Republicans greater
  • Is there a correlation between a Presidents approval rating on . . .
    I was looking 538's historical approval ratings and I noticed that on the last day of a two-term president's last term, the approval rating was about twice the popular vote margin nationwide This result was consistent, going all the way back to Reagan's 1984 reelection
  • Why do late-counted votes tend to be Democratic in most states?
    Moreover postal votes trended blue, again 538 noted: Democrats are much likelier than Republicans to say they will vote by mail — which makes sense given that Democrats also tend to be more supportive of mail voting (By contrast, the Republican standard bearer, President Trump, has repeatedly and inaccurately assailed mail voting as ripe for





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