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  • Longtermtrends | Stay on Top of Financial Markets!
    Stay on Top of Financial Markets! Our mission is to make financial markets accessible through easy-to-use charts, empowering you to spot trends and stay informed
  • Large-cap vs. Small-cap Stocks - Updated Chart - Longtermtrends
    Interpretation Interestingly, the Small-cap Large-cap ratio correlates quite strongly with the 10-Year (expected) Inflation Rate which is calculated as the difference between the Treasury Rate and the TIPS Rate According to Aswath Damodaran, historically, small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks during periods of high inflation, such as the 1970s
  • S P 500 PE Ratio - Shiller PE Ratio - Longtermtrends
    Interpretation Instead of dividing by the earnings of one year (see first chart), this ratio divides the price of the S P 500 index by the average inflation-adjusted earnings of the previous 10 years The ratio is also known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), the Shiller PE Ratio, or the P E10
  • Real Interest Rate - Updated Chart - Longtermtrends
    Interpretation The real interest rate is calculated as the difference between the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate The chart above displays the nominal interest rate of a 1-year US Treasury bond, the US inflation rate, and the resulting one-year real interest rate Inflation is defined as the yearly percentage change of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
  • Gold Silver Ratio - Updated Chart - Longtermtrends
    Interpretation The chart above displays the 1-year rolling correlation coefficient between the price of gold and the price of silver A correlation coefficient of +1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, meaning that the two precious metals moved in the same direction during the specified time window
  • Bond Yield Credit Spreads - Updated Chart - Longtermtrends
    These charts display the yield spreads between Corporate Bonds, Treasury Bonds, and Mortgages All bonds in this comparison have long durations, making the main differentiator the underlying credit risk The credit spreads tend to widen in economic recessions and indicate an increased risk of default as well as reduced liquidity in the market
  • The Real Home Price - Updated Chart - Longtermtrends
    Interpretation The real home price takes into account the effects of inflation and therefore allows for better comparison over time The ratio in the chart above divides the Case-Shiller Home Price Index by the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
  • US Stocks vs. The World - Updated Chart - Longtermtrends
    Interpretation The ratio in the chart above divides the MSCI USA by the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) index The MSCI ACWI is a better measure for global equities because it also includes emerging markets It consists of the MSCI World Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index However, as of December 2023, emerging markets stocks are only weighted with 10 5%%, whereas stocks from
  • US Yield Curve - Updated Chart - Longtermtrends
    Interpretation The charts above display the spreads between long-term and short-term US Government Bond Yields The flags mark the beginning of a recession according to Wikipedia A negative spread indicates an inverted yield curve In such a scenario short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates, which is often considered to be a predictor of an economic recession
  • M2 Money Supply Growth vs. Inflation - Longtermtrends
    The M2 Money Supply is a measure for the amount of currency in circulation This chart plots the yearly M2 Growth Rate and the Inflation Rate





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